Foresight is a structured process of scientific anticipation aimed at identifying strategic and tactical advantages, building coordinated plans, and organizing systematic actions to achieve measurable socio-economic benefits at both macro and micro levels over the long term (typically 10–30 years). It emphasizes systematic knowledge accumulation, collective vision formation for medium- and long-term development, and mobilization of stakeholders to take coordinated action.
Contemporary Need for Foresight
In the modern context, the need for foresight arises from several interrelated factors:
- Intensifying global competition.
- Constraints on public funding.
- Growing complexity of technological systems and the increasing role of scientific and technological competence.
Foresight serves to:
- Improve decision-making processes.
- Guide the selection and prioritization of technologies.
- Create alternative development pathways.
- Strengthen learning capacity and preparedness for uncertainty.
- Stimulate adaptive change across institutions.
Key Concepts
Foresight relies on several central conceptual pillars:
- Engagement of all key development actors: scientific and technological communities, businesses, governments, and the public.
- Promotion of cross-sectoral collaboration among academia, industry, and civil society organizations.
- Development of anticipatory skills and a culture of long-term thinking.
- Facilitation of multiple strategic options based on shared visions of the future.
- Inclusion of active influence on the future through early identification of promising research areas and concentration of resources on technologies with the highest social and economic potential.
Objectives
The principal objectives of foresight include:
- Enhancing industrial competitiveness and trade potential.
- Generating positive outcomes in economic, environmental, and social domains at national and regional levels.
- Embedding innovation-oriented thinking within policy design and research agendas.
Levels of Application
Foresight initiatives are conducted across various levels:
- International
- National
- Regional
- Sectoral
- Corporate
Main Stages of a Foresight Project
- Methodological Design
- Define principles for identifying regional or sectoral priorities.
- Establish selection criteria.
- Choose and adapt expert-based methodologies (e.g., Delphi, scenario analysis).
- Situation Analysis
- Assess strengths, weaknesses, and emerging challenges in relevant economic and technological domains.
- Identify research and innovation gaps.
- Priority Selection
- Form expert panels and facilitate structured discussions.
- Conduct surveys and focus group sessions to refine expert opinions.
- Implementation Planning
- Define strategic priorities and align them with public and private sector stakeholders.
- Develop actionable implementation roadmaps and monitoring frameworks.
Organizational Structure
Typical organizational participants include:
- A steering committee representing regional or institutional leadership.
- A managing agency responsible for project coordination.
- A leading research institution managing expert engagement and business cooperation.
- An external methodological and analytical partner, such as the OECD’s foresight division or the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), providing benchmarking and methodological support.
- Consulting organizations enabling integration into global foresight networks, such as the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) or the OECD Foresight Community.
- Temporary expert groups conducting analytical work, surveys, and peer reviews.
Expected Outcomes
- Lists of priority research areas and critical technologies.
- Catalogs of emerging innovation products in each priority area.
- Summaries (“passports”) of key technology domains.
- Aggregated expert assessments of future markets and innovation dynamics.
- Evaluations of commercial and social potential across critical technologies.
- Recommendations on research policy and performance metrics.
- Mappings of linkages among core R&D domains.
- Long-term scenarios for technology and industry evolution.
- Established expert networks and participatory platforms.
- Evaluation and feedback protocols.
- Foresight literacy and culture across participating institutions.
Project Duration and Budget
Timeframes depend on scope, complexity, and stakeholder engagement, typically ranging from six months to three years. Budget levels vary widely: national foresight programs in advanced economies often operate with annual allocations between EUR 2–4 million. For instance, Sweden’s national foresight program has averaged EUR 3.6 million annually, while Türkiye’s has exceeded EUR 2 million per year.
International Case Studies
Foresight has become a cornerstone of innovation governance and evidence-based policymaking across more than forty nations.
- In the United States, foresight practices emerged from defense and national security research, evolving into structured national programs by the 1990s.
- Japan institutionalized technology foresight through the Science and Technology Policy Council, conducting regular 10–15 year horizon forecasts.
- The United Kingdom integrated foresight into public policy via its Office for Science, focusing on themes such as health, transport, and sustainability.
- The European Union established the European Foresight Monitoring Network and later the EU Foresight Platform, fostering collaboration and knowledge exchange across member states.
- In South Korea, government foresight initiatives have guided industrial transformation and technological modernization since the early 2000s, emphasizing the convergence of ICT, energy, and manufacturing.
Regional foresight exercises have been implemented in Australia, Canada, and Singapore, focusing on aligning innovation priorities with sustainable development and human capital growth. Corporate foresight programs—such as those at Siemens, Shell, and BASF—demonstrate how large enterprises leverage anticipatory intelligence to improve long-term strategic planning.